The USD/JPY has climbed the past few trading sessions and price velocity upwards increased yesterday as the Forex pair tested higher values seen ten days ago.
As of this writing the USD/JPY is near the 141.900 level with fast conditions quite apparent. Having achieved a solid bearish stance the past few weeks, the USD/JPY has seen a reversal higher the past handful of days and increased price velocity upwards on Monday took the currency pair above the 142.275 ratio briefly.
Global market sentiment remains fragile. Financial houses that have made profits the past couple of weeks may be reexamining their positions, as they prepare for a long holiday weekend in the U.S which will affect trading volumes across the board. The weakness in the USD may reemerge, but one way trading conditions are difficult to produce and this has been proven again. The USD/JPY reversal higher now needs to be considered by speculators and its movement understood.
The 140.000 Level was Penetrated Upwards and has been sustained
Before going into the weekend the USD/JPY moved above the 140.000 effectively after flirting with the ratio for a few hours. Yesterday and early today’s trading has shown few signs of the USD/JPY ‘needing’ to revert to its lower realms. The 142.000 ratio is likely now the main attraction for speculators and should be monitored. Having climbed above the level yesterday, the USD/JPY was pushed lower. If the 142.000 mark is achieved again and momentum continues higher this would worry bearish traders.
Near-Term may Produce Choppy and Volatile Results in the USD/JPY
- As Forex volumes become lighter late tomorrow and later this week, the USD/JPY could grow extremely quiet. However, the potential of sudden spikes increases because of large trades possibly not having a counter balance.
- The move higher in the USD/JPY may prove to be temporary, but the question is how long the higher reversal will last which could be costly for speculators who remain bearish and continue to pursue lower moves.
- Risk management will be crucial the remainder of the week. Traders need to be prepared for price action that goes against their perceptions.
Conservative traders may want to simply watch the USD/JPY in the near-term. While the currency pair has seemingly run into strong support around the 139.000 level and reversed higher, the question is if upwards momentum will continue or if it will run out of power.
The bearish trend in the USD/JPY might reignite relatively soon, but the sudden return to a bullish mode is dangerous and should not be fought until support and price levels below again come into sight. In the short-term the USD/JPY will be choppy and a lack of full trading volume starting late tomorrow will make speculative conditions potentially volatile.
USD/JPY Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 142.168
Current Support: 141.490
High Target: 143.150
Low Target: 139.850
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