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USD/INR: Dynamic Day of Speculative Wagering Awaits Traders

The USD/INR has climbed higher incrementally the past week of trading after achieving lows not seen since the third week of September.

The USD/INR is trading near the 81.8100 mark as of this writing having put in solid incremental gains the past week. On Monday the 14th of November the USD/INR was valued at a depth of nearly 80.5000, which touched ratios not seen since the 22nd of September. However, the climb higher the past week of trading has likely caused many traders to suspect the long-term bullish trend has reemerged, and that bearish consideration should be brushed aside. But this may be wrong.

Important U.S Data on Schedule Today Followed by a Long Holiday Weekend

Speculators need to understand that today’s trading in the USD/INR could become volatile and fast. The U.S. will release a host of key economic statistics including Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI readings. It will also publish New Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment insights. Typically these reports would certainly move Forex without any other impetus, and their results will move the market today. But tomorrow the U.S. financial markets will be shuttered and global trading will dramatically decrease, this may cause chaos too.

The USD/INR has been trading upwards the past handful of sessions likely because many financial houses suspected the USD had weakened too swiftly. Technically it is possible that the recent buying of the USD/INR and other major currency pairs reflected the notion the U.S Federal Reserve would remain hawkish into the spring of 2023. However, there have been signs of inflation weakening and if today’s U.S. data shows recessionary tendencies and faltering sentiment by purchasing managers, this could help weaken the USD. This means the USD/INR could see selling ignite as a result.

The danger of Thin Trading Volume could hit the USD/INR

  • The USD/INR will react to the economic data from the U.S. today, but traders need to understand that many financial houses will close for business until next week after the statistics are released; meaning trading volume will drop significantly.
  • A lack of big trading volume in the USD/INR could cause unbalanced market conditions, where large transactions affect the currency pair with sudden spikes. Traders should be skeptical of technical charts near-term, experienced traders are urged to gauge their instincts and use risk management.

Speculative elements are ripe for plenty of price action today. The recent run higher in the USD/INR may have been a reaction to the belief the bearish trend seen in early November was overdone. It may be contrarian to ‘fight’ against the emergence of the bullish trend in the USD/INR the past week, but traders willing to bet on moves lower may find it worthwhile. Risk management including stop losses is strongly advised. Trading volume will be light starting late today and certainly tomorrow and Friday; this could cause odd-looking technical moves which will look like outliers.

USD/INR Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 81.8310

Current Support: 81.7775

High Target: 81.9210

Low Target: 80.8500


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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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