This week I will begin with my monthly and weekly Forex forecast of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of my forecast is based upon my research of the past 20 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
- Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 6 months.
- Trading against very strong weekly counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
- Carry Trade: Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast November 2022
I make no forecast for the remainder of the month of November, I think markets are too unsettled to look beyond the next few days.
Weekly Forecast 13th November 2022
Last week, I forecasted that the GBP/JPY currency cross is likely to rise in value over the coming week. Unfortunately, the price fell by 1.52% over the week, as the Yen was even stronger than the Pound.
The Forex market saw a strong increase in directional volatility last week, with 70% of the most important currency pairs and crosses moving by more than 1% in value. Directional volatility is likely to fall over the coming week.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Japanese Yen, and relative weakness in the US Dollar.
You can trade my forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
I teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
Let us see how trading one of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:
USD/CAD
I had expected the level at $1.3568 might act as resistance in the USD/CAD currency pair last week, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “role reversal” levels can work well. The H1 price chart below shows how the price rejected this level towards the start of last Thursday’s New York session with a bearish inside candlestick, marked by the down arrow signaling the timing of the bearish rejection. This trade has been extremely profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio of more than 10 to 1 so far based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure, which is also an interesting chart pattern combining a hammer candlestick, an inside candlestick, and an engulfing candlestick.
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