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S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Flirt With the 200 Day EMA

Keep in mind that Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States, so while the index itself will be closed, there will be some futures trading available.

  • The S&P 500 initially rallied on Wednesday again, testing the 200 Day EMA.
  • However, the volume will be a bit of a concern as it is the day before Thanksgiving, and of course, most of the day people were waiting around to see whether the FOMC Meeting Minutes could tell us anything.
  • It’s also worth noting that PMI numbers came out weaker than anticipated, which suggests that perhaps the Federal Reserve is getting closer to its mandate, although it is still miles away from taming inflation.

Looking at this chart, we are either making a bit of a double top, or we are trying to grind up enough momentum to break out finally. If we were to break out, then I would anticipate a move to the 4100 level where we will see another area of resistance. On the other hand, if we turn around in this area, we could consolidate between the 200-Day EMA and the 3900 level over the next several sessions.

Be Cautious

Keep in mind that Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States, so while the index itself will be closed, there will be some futures trading available. Because of this, if you are going to trade the ES or the SP500 CFD market, you need to be aware the fact that liquidity will be very thin, and you could find yourself in a bad situation if news hits the wire. On the other hand, more likely than not it will be a very quiet session as people will wait for Friday trading.

Speaking of Friday trading, you should also keep in mind that Friday is a shortened session, and quite typically is very thin volume as traders won’t come back to work until Monday typically. Because of this, I am going to be cautious at this point, but all things being equal I think it probably makes more sense to see consolidation over the next week or so, while we try to figure out what the Federal Reserve is going to do next. There will be a lot of interest paid to Federal Reserve speakers between now and the end of the year, specifically the December meeting. Right now, the question is whether or not we are going to have 50 basis points or a 75 basis points rate hike.

S&P 500

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.


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