- The NASDAQ 100 has bounced a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to see the market go back and forth as we await some type of catalyst to get the market moving.
- The NASDAQ 100 is more likely than not going to move on a handful of companies and of course the usual interest rate decisions.
- The United States currently sees very tight monetary policy, I do think that it does make a certain amount of sense that we will continue to look at the monetary policy as somewhat restrictive.
However, there are plenty on Wall Street that are trying to find one reason or another to get bullish, trying to convince themselves that the Federal Reserve is going to “pivot” sometime soon. That’s obviously nonsense, but it is the narrative that they are trying to sell themselves. The market has been somewhat bullish, bouncing from the 50-Day EMA, which is just above the 11,500 level.
Pay Close Attention
If we can break out from here, then it’s possible that we could go to the 12,000 level above, but that is quite a bit ahead of where we are right now, and it’s also going to suggest that perhaps the market tries to get there, but during Thanksgiving week it’s a bit difficult to imagine that we suddenly take off. The market has been very choppy, to begin with, and the closer we get to the Thursday Thanksgiving holiday, the less volume there is going to be. Obviously, the underlying index won’t be open, and of course, the electronic futures market is going to be somewhat limited.
If we were to turn around a breakdown below the 11,400 level, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 11,000 level. On the other hand, if we were to break above the 12,000 level, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the 200-Day EMA, near the 12,500 level. Keep in mind that we had broken out of a “W pattern”, and now are testing that area to see if support is going to be found at the previous resistance area. Ultimately, this is a scenario where we are going to have to make a significant decision rather soon, so it is worth paying close attention to the next move when it does in fact finally happen.
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