Gold Forecast: Gives Up Early Gains on Tuesday

Keep in mind that gold is highly negatively correlated to the interest rate market, and of course the US dollar in general. 

  • Gold markets initially rallied on Tuesday but have given back quite a bit of the gain as we continue to see a lot of volatility in the US dollar. We had recently broken out of a huge “W pattern”, and now are testing the area that was previously resistant.
  • The idea of “market memory” comes into this area, so buyers should be thought of as being available.
  • However, if we were to break down below the $1720 level, then we are likely to go below the 50-Day EMA and start chasing the idea of the $1680 level.

Keep in mind that gold is highly negatively correlated to the interest rate market, and of course the US dollar in general. If that’s going to remain a true factor in the way we are moving, you will need to keep an eye on interest rates in America, the US Dollar, and then finally the gold chart. With the -0.94-correlation factor, that of course is something that you cannot ignore.

Be Cautious About Your Positioning

The question of course is whether we are going to continue to focus on interest rates, or if we going to start focusing on a lack of global growth. There is the possibility that both the US dollar and gold go higher over the longer term, just like we had seen for decades previously. Most traders have never dealt with a highly inflationary environment, so it will be interesting to see whether the old correlations in the 1970s and 1980s come into the picture.

The market continues to be noisy regardless, and of course, you need to keep in mind that Thursday is Thanksgiving, so a lot of what we may be seeing is a simple lack of participation. Clearly, you can see how volume has dropped off a cliff in the last couple of days on the chart, so I do suspect that we may have sideways action between the 50-Day EMA underneath, and the 200-Day EMA above. Typically, when you are stuck between these 2 moving averages, you are getting close to some type of squeeze, and one direction or the other. With that in mind, you need to be cautious about your positioning, and of course, let the market tell you what it wants to do.

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Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

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