Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2100.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1925.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1900.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2115.
The GBP/USD price continued its recovery after the relatively positive economic data from the UK and dovish minutes by the Federal Reserve. It rallied to a high of 1.2060, which was the highest level since August 17.
Dovish Fed minutes
The GBP/USD price continued its recovery after the Federal Reserve published minutes of the latest meeting. The minutes showed that most officials favored slowing the pace of rate hikes in the coming meetings. Some officials expressed worries that continuing with jumbo rate hikes would have a negative impact on the economy.
Smaller rate hikes will also give the officials a chance to evaluate the impact of the past rate hikes. The market now expects that the bank will hike rates by 0.50% in its December 14 meeting. A key concern among market participants is the terminal rate.
This meeting happened before the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published October’s inflation data. These numbers revealed that the headline consumer inflation pulled back from 8.3% in September to 7.7% in October.
In recent statements, Fed officials have insisted that they will need to see a sustained period of low inflation before they change their tone on tightening. American bond yields pulled back after the minutes. 10-year bond yields dropped to 3.72% while the 30-year yield fell to 3.74%.
The GBP/USD price also reacted to the better-than-expected UK manufacturing and services PMI numbers. According to S&P, the manufacturing PMI remained at 46.2 while the services PMI remained at 48.8. The two were better than the median estimates of 45.7 and 48, respectively,
In the US, data showed that durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and new home sales improved in October. Durable goods orders rose by 0.1% while new home sales rose from 588k in September to 632k in October.
GBP/USD forecast
The GBP/USD pair has been in a strong upward trend in the past few days. It has moved above all moving averages on the 4H chart. The pair managed to move above the important resistance level at 1.2029, the highest point on November 15. The supertrend indicator has turned green while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued rising.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising in the near term. This rebound will likely continue rising as buyers target the key resistance at 1.2100.
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