EUR/USD: Weekly Forecast 20th – 26th November

The EUR/USD enters this week of trading having displayed a higher technical price range, but also exhibiting a selloff before going into the weekend.

Experienced traders know that contradictions flourish while pursuing their wagers in Forex and the EUR/USD may be about to deliver a rather intriguing mix of results this coming week.  With the EUR/USD firmly establishing a price above parity in the past two weeks of trading, speculators may be beginning to feel comfortable with the notion that sunnier days are ahead for the Forex pair. However, traders may want to acknowledge shadows linger.

The EUR/USD ended the week near the 1.03230 ratio, this after achieving a high of nearly 1.04750 on Tuesday the 15th of November.  The EUR/USD has mirrored the results of many other major currency pairs teamed against the USD. However, it may be worrying for bullish speculators the EUR/USD closed on a down note going into the weekend. While the 1.03000 managed to hold, traders can certainly see that support is nearby.

The Higher Price Range of the EUR/USD may hold, but Upwards Momentum may be Difficult

Important resistance levels technically appear durable near-term and traders have two important factors to consider before pursuing the EUR/USD this coming week. There will be a parade of data from Europe and the U.S this Wednesday, which will give insights regarding outlook in the manufacturing and services sectors. Also, the U.S will celebrate Thanksgiving on Thursday which means trading volumes will begin to diminish on Wednesday and evaporate later this week.

Technically the price range for the EUR/USD could prove opportunistic if the 1.03000 to 1.04000 ratios hold.  However, this small value difference will likely see outliers emerge and because trading volumes will become thin later this week, speculators should expect the potential of sudden spikes to be displayed, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday as U.S financial houses place their positions before leaving for the long holiday weekend.  

  • Technically if the EUR/USD is able to maintain its value over the 1.03000 ratio early this week this could be a bullish signal, but traders should remain cautious because of the economic data coming Wednesday teamed with the following U.S holiday.
  • Risk-taking should be combined with solid stop losses and take profit orders which are not overly ambitious this coming week.  Quick hitting trades are advised for speculators.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.0090 to 1.05200

The EUR/USD did sustain its value rather well this past week and support has certainly looked firm near the 1.03000 vicinity. The ability of the EUR/USD to trade within a price range it has not been able to sustain since early July is certainly of interest. The notion that selling was seen before going into the weekend will prove intriguing when the EUR/USD opens for trading this Monday morning.

If the EUR/USD can sustain support levels near 1.03000 it could be a bullish signal. A move lower that breaks this support ratio in the EUR/USD could be able to test lows near 1.02800 to 1.02600, which were seen briefly last week. A fall below the 1.02000 could occur if market sentiment grew nervous on possibly weaker than expected economic numbers this coming Wednesday, or if market orders in the EUR/USD became unbalanced because of holiday trading later this week and poor volume.

Having attained a significant climb in value the past few weeks, the EUR/USD has mirrored many other major currencies. However, price velocity upwards did see some resistance flourish when the 1.04000 level was challenged. A move above this ratio would be intriguing, but the bigger question is if it can be sustained. Early trading tomorrow and Tuesday will give clues about behavioral sentiment, but traders should be ready for holiday trading conditions to emerge which could produce choppy conditions which are hard to analyze even for quick hitting wagers.


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Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.