Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0300.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0500.
Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0500.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0300.
The EUR/USD price remained in a consolidation close to its highest point this month ahead of the upcoming US and European consumer confidence data. It was trading at 1.0482, which was slightly below this month’s high of 1.0482. It has jumped by over 9% from the lowest level this year.
US and EU consumer confidence ahead
The EUR/USD price has been in a steady upward trend in the past few weeks as investors focused on the likely Fed pivot. Early this month, data from the US showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in October. Additional data revealed that the country’s inflation declined from 8.3% in September to 7.7% in October.
Therefore, analysts have been expecting that the Federal Reserve will start pivoting in the coming meetings. This view was confirmed by the bank’s minutes that were published on Wednesday. The minutes showed that most Fed officials were in favor of slowing the pace of rate increases in the next few meetings.
Therefore, most analysts expect that the Fed will start slowing the pace of rate hikes in December. It will likely hike rates by 0.50% in December followed by several smaller rate hikes in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely deliver a bigger rate hike in its final meeting of the year. In a previous statement, Christine Lagarde said that the bank will need to hike above the neutral level. And in another statement last week, ECB’s Austria’s central bank governor said that the bank was leaning towards another 0.75% increase.
The next key catalyst for the EUR to USD price will be the upcoming statement by Christine Lagarde on Monday. Her statement will be followed by the latest US and EU consumer confidence data scheduled for Tuesday.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few weeks. On the 4H chart, the pair has moved above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved slightly below the overbought level. It has moved between the standard pivot point and the first resistance level.
The pair has formed what looks like a double-top pattern. Therefore, it appears that bulls are getting exhausted, which could see it have a pullback in the coming days. If this happens, the pair will likely drop to the neckline and the first support at 1.0240.
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