EUR/USD Forex Signal: Parabolic Rise Starts to Falter

Remains weakly bullish above $1.0400.

My previous EUR/USD signal on 21st November was not triggered, as none of the key support and resistance levels I had identified were reached that day.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be taken before 5pm London time today. 

Short Trade Idea

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0486, $1.0535, or $1.0601.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0406 or $1.0290.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair last Monday, I thought that we had a weakly bearish environment now, but I believed that the two support levels nearby were quite likely to hold up the price, at least over the day.

I was correct about that as the support levels were never even reached, and the price had no real direction or volatility over the day.

The price went on to rise strongly over the rest of this week however, making a near-parabolic rise which can be seen if you zoom out on an hourly price chart, as is shown below. The Euro has been quite strong as US Dollar weakness has continued, although it is not as strong as some other currencies such as the British Pound and the New Zealand Dollar.

There have been signs over recent hours that the rise is beginning to run out of steam, although this may be mostly because all the major economic data releases this week have already taken place, with a public holiday today in the USA and a light agenda elsewhere. So, I think the price action is likely to be relatively flat today.

The support level at $1.0406, especially because it is confluent with the round number at $1.0400, looks attractive and likely to hold at a first touch, so it could be an attractive area for scalpers at least. It would be logical for this to be today’s pivotal point.

EUR/USD

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the EUR or the USD. It is a public holiday today in the USA.

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Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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