Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0200.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0365.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0350 and a take-profit at 1.0425.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.02500.
The EUR/USD price pulled back slightly ahead of the latest flash manufacturing and services PMIs and FOMC minutes. It rose slightly to 1.0285, which was slightly above this week’s low of 1.0226. This price is much lower than this week’s high of 1.0478.
Flash PMIs and FOMC minutes
The EUR/USD price pulled back slightly as the US dollar index pulled back ahead of the FOMC minutes. These minutes will provide more color about the state of the Federal Reserve and what officials deliberated in the previous meeting.
In that meeting, the Fed decided to hike interest rates by 0.75% for the fourth straight month. It also hinted that rates will remain elevated for a while in a bid to lower inflation. That meeting came before the US published encouraging inflation numbers. The numbers revealed that inflation edged down from 8.3% in September to 7.7% in October.
The market has priced in a scaled-down 0.50% rate hike in December, which will bring the year-to-date increases to 450 basis points. In a statement, Fed’s Loretta Mester said that the bank wanted more progress on inflation before ending rate hikes.
The EUR/USD also reacted to the ongoing gas challenges in Europe. On Tuesday, Russia warned that it could stop gas flows to Western Europe through Ukraine. Gazprom has already stopped most of gas exports to the European Union.
The key data to watch from Europe will be the upcoming flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers by S&P Global. These numbers are expected to show that the bloc’s PMIs remained under pressure in November. Precisely, for the euro area, they expect that the services PMI dropped to 48.
The pair will also react to key economic data from the US like building permits, durable goods, initial jobless claims, and new home sales numbers.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD pair has pulled back from this month’s high of 1.0482 to 1.0285. It has moved to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands while the Stochastic Oscillator moved to the neutral level of 50. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed upwards. It is also between the pivot point and the first support level.
The pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support level at 1.0200. The stop loss of this trade is at the pivot point at 1.0360.
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