- The EUR/USD has drifted a little bit during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of negativities.
- The 50-Day EMA above continues offer resistance, right along with the downtrend line. Beyond that, you have the parity level which is also going to offer a significant amount of resistance.
- Ultimately, I think this is a market that will continue to lower, but what I am hoping for is that the knee-jerk reaction for the jobs number sends this market higher, so that we can start fading signs of exhaustion.
If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it’s likely that the Euro is likely to go down to the 0.96 level, perhaps even down to the 0.95 level, which is where we had bounce from previously. Ultimately, this is a market that has been very noisy and choppy, and I think that will continue to be the case as we have seen so much in the way of confusion will going forward. After all, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates, but at the same time we have the Federal Reserve becoming extraordinarily aggressive, and more likely than not, staying tight for much longer than people had originally anticipated.
Looking to Fade Rallies
I don’t necessarily think that the Euro is going to collapse, but I do like fading rallies because quite frankly there’s no reason for the Euro to truly take off to the outside. If we did break above the most recent rally, then we could send this market looking to the 200-Day EMA which is closer to be 1.04 level. Ultimately, this is a situation where we have seen a massive downtrend, and I think that should continue to be the case because there is going to be a lack of growth coming out of the European Union.
At the same time, the world is currently seeing a shortage of US dollars, therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see the US dollar strengthened. Ultimately, believe that if we break down below the 0.95 level, it’s likely that we could go down to the 0.9250 level after that. Ultimately, the US dollar is like a wrecking ball against almost everything, not just the Euro itself. Because of this, I like the idea of buying greenbacks every time they become “cheaper.”
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