BTC/USD Forex Signal: Strong Drop to Support at $19,246

Bitcoin made a sharp drop yesterday, after advancing to highs beyond $20,500.

Previous BTC/USD Signal

My previous Bitcoin signal on 19th October was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level identified at $18,996 was first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be taken by 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $19,463, $18,996, or $18,856.
  • Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $19,939 or $20,532.
  • Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous analysis on 19th October that the price of BTC/USD looked likely to

continue its existing dull consolidation pattern over the near term, flattening out above the $19k area showing very little price movement or general volatility, making Bitcoin unattractive to traders.

This was a good call as the price did little over that day and the net, before it rose from the $19k area, so I was also correct to see the hint that the line of least resistance was upwards.

The price showed signs of breaking out of this quite long-term consolidation around the $19k area a few days ago, rising quite strongly to an area above $20,500, but in recent hours the price has fallen hard to make a new 2-week low by bouncing quite firmly off the key support level at $19,463.

The support at $19,463 looks very strong, and I think that all we have seen here is volatility, not any real directional price movement. This suggests that the consolidation is likely to continue, which gives a potential long trade opportunity from $19,463 if the price falls to touch the level again before making another bullish bounce.

On the other hand, I think we see signs of resistance even earlier than expected confluent with the round number at $20k, so the price may struggle to get established above the $20k area, which would be a logical place to take profit in any long trade from $19,463.

I am not a fundamental fan of Bitcoin, seeing it as very over-hyped, but I do think that its reluctance to really get established below $19k does suggest that there may be a more long-term price rise ahead, or at least its more likely to happen than a long-term fall. For traders, it is hard to get much joy out of Bitcoin now – the Forex market and other asset classes are much more interesting right now.

BTC/USD

Concerning the US Dollar, there is nothing of high importance scheduled today.

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Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.