Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 18,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 15,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and a take-profit at 15,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 17,000.
Bitcoin prices have remained in a consolidation phase in the past few days. The BTC/USD price was trading at 16,500 on Wednesday, where it has been since November 23. It has risen slightly by about 8% from its lowest level this month.
BTC consolidation continues
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been ranging recently as concerns about contagion continued. There have been several new revelations about FTX and Alameda Research. For example, on Tuesday, BlockFi filed for bankruptcy and sued FTX for its Robinhood investments.
The key catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be an interview with Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) at the Dealbook Conference. Investors will watch some of his statements. Other speakers at the summit whose statements will be watched are Larry Fink of BlackRock and Janet Yellen.
Bitcoin price has also struggled as the yield curve continued inverting. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bond yields has crashed to the lowest level in more than 30 years. The 10-year bond yield rose to 3.7% while the 2-year yield rose to 4.3%.
Historically, the yield curve is the most accurate predictor of a recession. This explains why the US dollar has risen and stocks have retreated. The Dow Jones index dropped by 60 points while the Nasdaq 100 retreated by 80 points.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s hash rate has dropped to the lowest level since September 30. Hashrate is an important number since it shows the health of the network. The network mining difficulty has remained close to its highest level this year.
The BTC/USD pair will next react to the upcoming American economic data. Economists expect the GDP numbers to show that the economy expanded by 2.3% in the third quarter. ADP will also publish the latest job numbers that are expected to show that the economy added over 200k jobs.
BTC/USD forecast
The 4H chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has formed a double-bottom pattern at 15,513. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bullish sign. The pair has also formed a small inverted head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is also a positive sign. It is consolidating at the 25-day moving average while the MACD has moved to the neutral level.
Therefore, the pair will likely have a bullish breakout in the next few days. If this happens, the next key target for the pair will be at 18,000.
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