BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Brief Rebound to 18,000 Likely

The main catalyst for the BTC/USD price in the past few weeks has been the collapse of FTX, the second-biggest crypto exchange in the world. 

Bullish view

  • Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 18,000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 15,700.
  • Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish view

  • Set a sell-stop at 16,000 and a take-profit at 15,000.
  • Add a stop-loss at 17,000.

The BTC/USD price rose slightly on Wednesday and Thursday morning as more revelations of FTX collapse emerged. Bitcoin rose to $16,500, which was slightly above this week’s low of $15,477. It remains substantially lower than this month’s high of $21,500.

FTX unwinding continues

The main catalyst for the BTC/USD price in the past few weeks has been the collapse of FTX, the second-biggest crypto exchange in the world. The firm, together with its sister company, Alameda Research, filed for bankruptcy earlier this month.

In court proceedings, it was revealed that a substantial amount of money were missing or stolen in its final days. The new CEO also said that the company, which had billions of assets was run like the personal fiefdom of Sam Bankman.

Therefore, there have been calls for tighter regulations in the industry. In a statement, Senator Elizabeth Warren compared cryptocurrencies to the subprime crisis that led to the collapse of the housing market in 2008. She and other legislators wrote to companies like Fidelity recommending that they stop offering cryptocurrencies in retirement accounts.

Similarly, New York’s attorney general asked congress to prevent retirement companies from investing in Bitcoin and other digital coins. Such a move will likely have an impact on crypto demand in the future. Other policymakers like Janet Yellen have called for strict crypto regulations.

The BTC/USD price also tilted after the latest Federal Reserve minutes. The minutes showed that many Fed officials favored lower rate hikes going forward. In that meeting, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 0.75% for the fourth straight meeting.

Therefore, analysts expect that the bank will deliver smaller rate hikes going forward. The case for smaller rate increases was supported by the fact that inflation is moderating. It dropped to 7.7% in October.

BTC/USD forecast

The BTC/USD made an uneasy recovery in the overnight session. It rose to 16,400 after falling to the important support level of 15,477 on Monday. The price was also along the descending trendline shown in blue and at the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

Bitcoin has struggled to move below 15,477, where it has formed a double-bottom pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved to the neutral point at 50. The pair will likely continue rising on Thursday as buyers aim for the resistance at 18,0000. This view will be confirmed if it manages to move above the descending trendline. Such a rebound will be another opportunity to sell the coin since sentiment remains negative.

BTC/USD

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Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

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