BTC/USD Forex Signal: Pennant Points to a Treacherous Week

Most analysts expect that the fallout of FTX’s crash will spread to other companies and cryptocurrencies as well. 

Bearish view

  • Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 15,500.
  • Add a stop-loss at 17,000.
  • Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

  • Set a buy-stop at 16,800 and a take-profit at 17,500.
  • Add a stop-loss at 15,500.

The BTC/USD price was in a consolidation phase on Monday as concerns about the cryptocurrency industry continued. Bitcoin was trading at $16,555, where it has been in the past few days. This price is about 23% below the highest level this month.

Bitcoin consolidation continues

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been in a tight range in the past few days. This consolidation is happening as the market assesses the breadth and depth of the FTX crash.

In the past few weeks, contagion has spread in some other companies. Last week, a lending firm associated with Digital Currency Group suspended deposits and any lending. BlockFi, a company that was rescued by FTX, also suspended its operations. Genesis, another smaller American exchange, briefly suspended withdrawals last week.

Most analysts expect that the fallout of FTX’s crash will spread to other companies and cryptocurrencies as well. Besides, the company has a capital gap of over $8 billion and it has over 1 million creditors from around the world. Another concern is on the existing cryptocurrencies exchanges and whether they have similar accounting issues like FTX.

Therefore, the next key catalyst for the BTC/USD price will be the potential regulations in the industry. Many analysts expect that the American government will implement regulations similar to the Dodd-Frank ones that were implemented during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Such measures could become positive for the cryptocurrency industry since they will prevent more companies from collapsing.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fear and greed index has remained at the lowest level in months, signaling that investors are still fearful. Another key metric, put to call ratio, has dropped to 0.54, which is lower than the year-to-date high of 0.70. A low figure is a sign that the options market is bullish.

BTC/USD forecast

The BTC/USD pair has been in a consolidation phase in the past few days. On the 4H chart, it has moved below the Ichimoku cloud. It has also dropped below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved slightly below the neutral level.

The pair has formed a bearish pennant pattern that is shown in black. In price action analysis, this pattern is usually a bearish sign. Therefore, it will likely have a bearish breakout in the coming days since it has moved to the confluence level. If this happens, the pair will drop to about 15,500.


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Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

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