BTC/USD Forecast: Continues to be Dead Money

If the monetary policy remains tight, and it will for the foreseeable future, it’s difficult to imagine that institutions are going to throw a lot of money at Bitcoin or other crypto products.

  • The BTC/USD has done very little again during the training session on Wednesday as we await the results of the Federal Reserve meeting.
  • Most of the market knows that the Fed is going to raise by 75 basis points, but it will be the nuance of the statement afterward that a lot of people will be paying attention to.
  • Keep in mind that the network effect does have a certain amount of influence on the market, but at the end of the day most institutions are worried about liquidity, not the fundamentals of the network.

If the monetary policy remains tight, and it will for the foreseeable future, it’s difficult to imagine that institutions are going to throw a lot of money at Bitcoin or other crypto products. Currently, it looks like we are stuck in a bit of an arrangement with the $18,000 level offering significant support. If we were to break down below there, then the market might start to unwind and go down to the $15,000 level. On the upside, the market is more likely than not going to see the $25,000 level offer a significant barrier, especially as the 200-Day EMA is sitting right there as well. Once we can break above there, then the uptrend will start to assert itself.

Bitcoin Remains Stable

In a bit of irony, Bitcoin has been relatively stable in comparison to other things like stock markets, but I don’t know if that’s a good thing or if it is just a thing. After all, it might be a lack of interest, which I don’t know would be a good side either. I suspect that more likely than not, we will break down below the $18,000 level, and go much lower.

 If we get down to the $12,000 level, it would be a complete “round-trip” for the market, which means that we would be right back to where we had rallied from to begin the latest bullish move. Whether or not that happens is still up in the air, but I do know some people are starting to accumulate in this area. I just would not jump “all in” in this area, because the most bullish scenario is that Bitcoin grinds sideways for a while. One thing is for sure, Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, which could be very bad news.

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Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

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