BTC/USD Forecast: Still Doing Nothing

If monetary policy is relatively tight, Bitcoin stands very little chance of rallying for anything significant. 

  • The BTC/USD initially tried to rally on Thursday but gave back what little gain it had in lackluster trading.
  • Quite frankly, institutional volume in the Bitcoin market continues to drop, and the fact that it was Thanksgiving will have not helped either.
  • Nonetheless, the reality is that most institutional money is running away from Bitcoin, as it is a toxic asset now.

If monetary policy is relatively tight, Bitcoin stands very little chance of rallying for anything significant. Even though we are starting to see talk about the Federal Reserve leveling off its monetary rate hikes, the reality is that Bitcoin has multiple other problems as well. The first one of course is the fact the asset cannot be used as money. Yes, I get into arguments all the time about how you can transfer it across the world, but what good is that going to be when it loses 70% in the year? That’s not money, that’s a speculative asset.

I have no issues whatsoever speculating, but we need to call it for what it is. Bitcoin is not going to be money anytime soon, if at all. Quite frankly, Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, and they’re going to wipe out Bitcoin. I don’t like the idea of these digital currencies, but you and I both know that the average person is going to trust the Federal Reserve far quicker than they are going to trust a mysterious person that nobody can name.

See Rallies as Opportunities to Sell

Beyond that, cryptocurrencies have a major problem with fraud, and that is starting to truly take the headlines. All monetary systems and economies are based on trust. At this point, very few people trust crypto, except for the absolute “diehards.” In this environment, any time crypto rallies, you have to be looking for an opportunity to sell it to somebody else. It’s a greater fool theory on the way up, and it’s the greater full theory on the way down.

I think eventually we go down to the $12,000 level, and maybe grind sideways there. We could be looking at as low as $10,000 underneath that as part of the buffer. I anticipate that Bitcoin will do nothing for quite some time, so I may begin to build a position in that general vicinity, but even then, I’d have to seriously think about it. Crypto is at a point right now where it’s either going to get its act together or disappear altogether.

BTC/USD

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Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

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