AUD/USD Forex Signal: Aussie Regains Momentum

The AUD/USD price bounced back after the Federal Reserve minutes pointed to lower interest rate hikes going forward. 

Bullish view

  • Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6800.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6650.
  • Timeline: 1 day.

Bearish view

  • Set a sell-stop at 0.6690 and a take-profit at 0.6600.
  • Add a stop-loss at 0.6750.

The AUD/USD price bounced back after the Federal Reserve minutes pointed to lower interest rate hikes going forward. The Australian dollar rose to a high of 0.6728, which was the highest point since November 17.

China lockdowns and FOMC minutes

The AUD/USD price bounced back as the US dollar retreated after the Federal Reserve published the latest minutes. The minutes showed that most officials were supportive of lower rate hikes going forward. They believe that lower rate hikes will be needed as the bank looks at the impact of this year’s 400 basis point hikes.

Therefore, analysts expect that the bank will hike rates by 50 basis points in December after rising by 0.75% in the past four meetings. Now, the concern among investors is how high-interest rates will climb in 2023.

The AUD/USD pair also rose even after many cities in China went into lockdown as the number of Covid-19 cases rose. It reported 28,000 cases on Tuesday, with most cases being in Beijing, Chongqing, and Guangzhou. China is an important country since it is the biggest buyer of Australian goods.

Meanwhile, data published by Markit showed that Australia’s manufacturing PMI declined from 52.7 in September to 51.5 in October. The services PMI dropped from 49.3 to 47.2 in October, signaling that the economy is facing some headwinds.

In the United States, data showed that durable and core durable goods orders did well in October. They rose by 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively, which was higher than the median estimates of 0.4% and 0.1%. Meanwhile, building permits dropped from 1.56 million to 1.52 million while new home sales increased by 7.5% after falling by 11% in the previous month. The Michigan consumer sentiment increased to 55.6.

AUD/USD forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few hours. It has managed to move above the important support level at 0.6636, which was the lowest level on November 17. It has risen above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved close to the overbought level.

The pair will likely continue rising as buyers target last week’s high of 0.6800. The stop-loss for this trae will be at 0.6650.

AUD/USD

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Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.

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