- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday, but the 50-Day EMA has offered enough support to turn things around.
- At this point, it looks like the market maker looking toward the 200-Day EMA, which is roughly $92.
- The 200-Day EMA more likely than not will continue to offer a bit of dynamic resistance, and a lot of people use that indicator to determine the overall trend.
If we were to break above that indicator, then it’s likely that the crude oil market will continue to go much higher, perhaps trying to get to the $100 level which has a lot of obvious psychology attached to it. In that scenario, I think you got a situation where a lot of people will be looking to pay close attention to the area and whether the market can get above there. If we can do that, it could kick off the next major bull run.
Volatility Ahead
On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the 50-Day EMA, then we could see a bigger move to the downside, opening the possibility of a shot down to the most recent low. If we break down below there, then it’s likely that the $80 level continues to offer a nice target. If we were to make that move, then it’s likely that we could go much further.
A lot of what will be driving this market is going to be the perceived demand and of course, that is a real question right now as the global economy seems to be slowing down. Ultimately, this is a scenario where you’ve got a situation where it’s going to be running on everything global macro related, and of course the fact that OPEC has recently cut supply. This causes a lot of volatility but pay close attention to the market and perhaps more importantly, paid more attention to your position size than usual. This is the type of market that can be dangerous regardless of which direction you are trading. After all, you need to be able to survive this type of volatility to continue to trade going forward. Ultimately, part of what we are seeing is central banks around the world not hiking as much as anticipated, so therefore people are hoping on a global turnaround.
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