USD/JPY: Consolidation Develops in Higher Elements of Range

While the USD/JPY was taken lower on the 22nd of September when the Bank of Japan made it clear that they had purchased a large amount of Japanese Yen, the past two weeks have seen the USD/JPY climb higher incrementally.  

The USD/JPY has created a consolidated range the past day and a half as it seemingly awaits the next blast of behavioral sentiment to emerge.

As of this morning the USD/JPY is near the 144.530 ratio.  Consolidation has been demonstrated the past day and a half within the 144.100 to 144.800 vicinities. Behavioral sentiment in the global market place has also had an intriguing start to the week as global equity indices have done well, but seen a shadow redevelop in the past day. This as economic chatter and outlook remain within the scope of wishful thinking for ‘happy return’s, but mixed with reminders that problems lurk.

The Bank of Japan has many Doubters who Remain Suspicious

While the USD/JPY was taken lower on the 22nd of September when the Bank of Japan made it clear that they had purchased a large amount of Japanese Yen, the past two weeks have seen the USD/JPY climb higher incrementally.  And on the 3rd of October the USD/JPY actually climbed above the 145.000 mark again.

The 145.000 level appears to be a critical inflection point for the BoJ, financial institution and speculators, but the reality is that it is merely a number – a ratio that is psychological and one that doesn’t have any magic when studied. The BoJ may find it faces a decision again regarding another potential large purchase of Japanese Yen to try and fight the long term bullish trend of the USD/JPY.

Traders who believe the long term trend of the USD/JPY has not been killed off by the Bank of Japan may believe the 144.700 to 144.990 range offers solid targets for short term bullish action. Traders need to remember that tomorrow’s jobs data from the U.S will cause a wave of volatility that will likely break the consolidation which has kept the USD/JPY relatively tame the past day and a half.

Quiet Time for the USD/JPY is probably about to come to an End

  • Not only is the jobs and earnings data coming from the U.S tomorrow, but suddenly the price of Crude Oil has seen a nervous rise in value – these two factors will create fragile trading conditions.
  • The 144.375 level appears to be important support for the USD/JPY and should be monitored, along with the resistance near the 144.800 level.

Traders who are pursuing quick hitting trades in the USD/JPY today may be able to take advantage of the consolidation and aim for technical and resistance levels. But speculators need to be prepared for a violent change to the ‘air’ of calm the USD/JPY has displayed the past couple of days, it will not last. Too many questions remain regarding the BoJ and global economic outlook. Traders are urged to be cautious in the near term.

USD/JPY Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 144.690

Current Support: 144.390

High Target: 144.970

Low Target: 144.030


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Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.