Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) settled lower in early trading on Wednesday, to achieve slight gains until the moment of writing this report. It went up by 0.23% to settle at a price of $5.673 per million British thermal units, after incurring losses during yesterday’s trading and for the third day respectively, with a rate of -4.81%.
US natural gas futures fell about 4% on Tuesday, hitting a three-month low as oil and gas prices fell in Europe and forecasters pointed to milder weather in the US over the next two weeks.
US gas prices have been falling for eight weeks, as record domestic production and lower LNG exports allow utilities to pump more gas than usual into storage.
Major LNG outages include Berkshire Hathaway Energy's shutdown of its 0.8 billion cubic feet per day Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for nearly three weeks of planned maintenance on October 1. As well as the ongoing shutdown of Freeport LNG's 2.0 in Texas for unplanned work after the June 8 blast. Freeport expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November.
However, US LNG exports may start to pick up this week if Cove Point returns to service as some traders expect.
While futures in Europe have fallen by about 30% over the past week, heading for their lowest close since June 14. Robust LNG imports boosted the amount of gas stored in northwest Europe to healthy levels above 90% of capacity, prices recorded The European Union hit an all-time high of $90.91 on August 25.
Natural Gas Forecast
- Technically, the price continues to decline amid being affected by the breach of a bullish slope line in the medium term, as shown in the attached chart for a (daily) period.
- Negative pressure continued for its trading below the simple moving average for the previous 50 days, in addition to that, we notice the continuation of negative signals on the strength indicators.
- Relative, despite reaching oversold areas.
Therefore, our expectations indicate more decline for natural gas during its upcoming trading, to target the important and 5.455 nearby support level, and this negative scenario will remain valid if the 6.338 resistance level remains intact.
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