The NASDAQ 100 has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday but then turned around to show signs of weakness as we have broken below the 11,000 level. The 11,000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, so now that we have broken down below there, it suggests that the market is ready to go lower.
Rallies at this point in time continue to be selling opportunities and it’s probably worth noting that the market closed at the very bottom of the range for the trading session, which shows that people were not willing to hang on to stocks into the weekend. That’s not a huge surprise, because quite frankly that the interest-rate situation continues to work against the value of the stock market. Ultimately, there is a lot of a “risk off” type of situation, as the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate, and of course, we have a lot of concerns when it comes to whether the economy is going to start to roll over yet again.
NASDAQ 100 Has Much Further to go to the Downside
- Keep in mind that the NASDAQ 100 must have a lot to do with technology and just a handful of bigger players, so if they continue to struggle, there’s no way that this market can continue to go higher.
- I think the market continues to be a “fade the rally” type of situation. The 11,500 level is an area of resistance, and therefore I think that offers a nice short-term ceiling.
- If we were to break above there, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 12,000 level.
- All things being equal, the NASDAQ 100 has much further to go to the downside, just as other indices around the world do. If the US dollar starts to spike again, that will obviously work against the value of this market.
The Federal Reserve is nowhere near pivoting, and I think Wall Street is starting to come to that conclusion again. We also have a lot of concerns when it comes to noise coming out of Ukraine, so I think that will also contribute to the overall “risk off” type of situation. At this point, it would take a huge shift in attitude and momentum to turn this market around, but I don’t think it happens anytime soon.
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