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Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.9730 and a take-profit at 0.9600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.9876 and a take-profit at 1.0050.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.9700.
The EUR/USD price recovered modestly from its two-decade low in the final part of the week as investors bought the dip. The pair climbed to a high of 0.9852 on Friday, which was much higher than last week’s low of 0.9537. In total, the euro crashed by more than 6% in the third quarter of the year.
Euro remains under pressure
The EUR/USD price pulled back slightly after the substantially hot inflation numbers from Europe. According to the European statistics agency, the bloc’s consumer price index (CPI) jumped from 9.1% in August to 10.0% in September. This increase was bigger than the median estimate of 9.7%. It was also the biggest inflation rate ever recorded.
The headline CPI rose from 0.6% in August to 1.2% in September on a month-on-month basis. Again, this increase was bigger than the estimated 0.9%. Meanwhile, excluding the volatile food and energy products, inflation rose from 4.3% in August to 4.8% in September.
Therefore, these numbers imply that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue hiking interest rates in the coming months. In a statement last week, Christine Lagarde hinted that the central bank will continue hiking interest rates in the coming months. She expects two more 0.75% rate hikes this year.
Still, the challenge for the ECB is that most analysts expect that the European economy will worsen in the coming months as energy prices soar. As a result, this could lead to a long recession and higher unemployment rate. The labor market has remained stable in the past few months, with the unemployment rate being at 6.6%.
The EUR/USD also reacted to the latest US PCE data. According to the statistics agency, core PCE, which is Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose from 4.7% in July to 4.9% in August.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD price has been in a bullish trend in the past few days. As a result, it has moved between the upper and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands. It has also risen above the 25-day moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the neutral point of 50. The MACD has moved above the neutral point.
Therefore, the pair will likely retest the important resistance at 0.9876 and then resume the bearish trend. If this happens, the next key support level to watch will be at 0.9600.
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