Previous BTC/USD Signal
My previous Bitcoin signal on 29th September was not triggered as the price did not reach any of the key support or resistance levels which I had identified that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $18,927 or $18,570.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $19,596 or $19,727.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous analysis on 29th September that the price of BTC/USD looked likely to
rise to the resistance levels between $20,532 and $20,782 before turning bearish again.
I thought that a bearish sign would be the price getting established below $18,570.
I noted that the price action in Bitcoin had become very dull and this has not changed, with the long-term consolidation pattern continuing to see the price meander between $18,500 and $20,400.
My call for the day was semi-accurate in the sense that the key levels all held and were not even reached, but over the next few days we saw my forecast of a rise to at least $20,532 come true.
The technical picture remains rangebound, and we still see these are dominant extreme support and resistance levels which are keeping the price within a range.
It was not that long ago that Bitcoin was very volatile while the Forex market remained dull for a long while, but this has changed, and Bitcoin is now range bound with historically low volatility making it less attractive to traders.
I think that the consolidation pattern is likely to continue over the near term, so as the price is very close to the support level at $18,927 right now, if the level is touched it could provide an interesting long trade for swing traders or even position traders or investors.
The long-term bullish case can be seen to be technically reinforced by the several times Bitcoin has really failed to break down dramatically below support levels and the round number at $18k.
On the other hand, the price of Bitcoin is not showing any momentum, but is still technically within a long-term bearish trend, so traders looking for longs should not delude themselves that they are trading with the trend. Long trades here are hopeful trades and will likely require high to risk reward ratio targets to pay off with positive expectancies.
Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time.
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