BTC/USD Forecast: Drifting Back and Forth

The BTC/USD market has fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday as we continue to see a lot of lackluster momentum. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see the 50-Day EMA above offers bit of resistance. At this point, the $20,000 level of course causes a significant amount of psychological pressure as well. At this point, I think any time that we rally you are looking at an opportunity to short the market, because quite frankly Bitcoin just has nowhere to be at the moment.

Keep in mind that the risk appetite around the world continues to see a real lack of interest in the crypto world. After all, crypto is very far out on the risk spectrum, and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that the will continue to see the market do very little. Keep in mind that there is a lot of institutional money in the Bitcoin markets now, so it’s a completely different situation at this point. After all, larger firms do not like risking money in a market that can move drastically.

That being said, it’s interesting that the Bitcoin market has been rather quiet, when the more traditional markets such as the S&P 500 has been very volatile. Furthermore, the market continues to see significant support underneath at the $18,000 level. Having said this, if we were to break down below there, then it’s likely that the market will continue to go much lower, perhaps down to the 15,000 level, followed by the 12,000 level. The 12,000 level is where we had originally taken off from, so would be a complete “round-trip” of the bullish market that we had been in.

Rallies at this point look suspicious to me, and it’s not until we break above the $25,000 level that I would take any rally serious. The 200-Day EMA certainly comes into the picture there as well, so keep that in mind, because Bitcoin is a very technically driven market most of the time. As long as the Federal Reserve remains tight with monetary policy, is going to be difficult for Bitcoin to pick up momentum to the upside and therefore I think if you must trade, you will be very quick and nimble with any position sizes you put on.

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Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

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