Start the week of September 4th, 2022 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here.
The EUR/USD has been all over the place during the previous week, and I think we are going to see more of this going forward. At this point is all about shorting rallies, with the 1.01 level above being resistance, and then again at the 1.02 level. It’s difficult to get bullish of the Euro knowing that this winter is going to be very negative for that part of the world. A little bit of patience can go a long way, because you can get “value” by picking up “cheap US dollars.”
The GBP/USD has fallen during the week to threaten the 1.15 level. This is an area that will attract a lot of attention, and I would anticipate some type of short-term bounce. I thought we had that on Friday, but we have given back almost all the gains in rather short order. I do not believe that rallies in the British pound can be trusted at this point, and you need to look at it through the prism of fading rallies as they come. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the British pound should take off. There might be recoveries, but they will be short-lived at best.
The USD/JPY has rallied again against the Japanese yen to pierce the ¥140 level. At this point, I find it very difficult to think that this market is going to see anything but the occasional pullback, as the Bank of Japan does everything it can to fight interest rates rising in that country. With that being the case, it does make a lot of sense to look at this as a market that will eventually fulfill the bullish flag, meaning that we could go all the way to the ¥142.50 level.
The AUD/USD has rallied initially during the week but then got pounded again as we continue to see a lot of risk off behavior around the world. If that’s going to be the case, this pair will more likely than not attempt to test that 0.67 level underneath. If that gives way, the US dollar is going to be like a wrecking ball to risk appetite around the world. It seems as if it is only a matter of time.
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