USD/NOK: Choppy Conditions within Higher Range Challenging

After touching a long term high above the 11.01000 ratio yesterday, the USD/NOK remains within sight of it highest tier.

As of this writing the USD/NOK currency pair is near the 10.85000 vicinity, this after coming off of early lows seen this morning near the 10.68000 ratio. Yesterday the USD/NOK touched a low of nearly 10.64000 which was last seen on the 26th of September. But the above does not tell the whole story.

Before hitting yesterday’s low the USD/NOK actually jumped to a high over the 11.01000 mark.  The high continued the long term bullish trajectory the USD/NOK has been pursuing and was a new apex level not seen since March of 2020.

The USD/NOK like all other major currency pairs has been violent and it has also made strong bullish gains. Yesterday’s sudden reversal lower reflected the results across Forex, and its reversal higher this morning also has mirrored a lot of the price action among currencies paired versus the USD as the bullish trend recovers.

Speculators have plenty to Ponder Regarding the USD/NOK

Technical highs have continued to be recorded by the USD/NOK and its long term bullish trend is clear.  Interestingly the trend of the USD/NOK has mirrored its major counterparts like the EUR, but what is intriguing is that Norway is a huge exporter of energy and its stands to gain substantially economically due to the growing demand for its Natural Gas from Europe as the supply from Russia ends. This should eventually help the NOK gain a footing fundamentally.

  • However, the U.S Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and outlook continues to affect the USD/NOK with bullish attitudes.
  • Resistance levels have been proven vulnerable, but yesterday’s reversal lower in the USD/NOK should act as a reminder trading is not a one way street.

Short term support levels near the 10.80000 mark should be watched.  If this level proves durable in the short term it may be signaling additional buying could emerge in the USD/NOK which could make another push higher. The early record highs achieved yesterday should not be thought of as a one off. The long term bullish trend in the USD/NOK remains evident technically, and fundamentally there is reason to suspect there will be additional strong days.

While the short term is certain to be choppy taking into consideration the vast amount of news flow from central banks which are affecting behavioral sentiment in Forex, the USD/NOK like many currency pairs will have challenging days ahead.  If a speculator wants to buy the USD/NOK on moves lower toward support, while looking for reversals higher that once again flirt with higher realms they cannot be blamed for the wager.

Norwegian Krone Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 10.88900

Current Support: 10.77300

High Target: 11.02000

Low Target: 10.63500

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Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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