USD/MXN: Potential to Wager on Hurricane Ian ‘Attractive’

The USD/MXN has climbed in value the past handful of trading days and presents a speculative opportunity for traders.

The USD/MXN currency pair is trading near the 20.33000 level as of early this morning. Yesterday’s high in the USD/MXN climbed near the 20.45500 vicinity before reversing slightly lower. The USD/MXN currency pair remains within the upper elements of its near term price range. Last week’s interest rate hike from the U.S Federal Reserve and its outlook, teamed with decreasing Crude Oil prices have helped create the bullish run higher in the USD/MXN.

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Higher Levels within the USD/MXN were displayed in July and August

The current value of the USD/MXN while challenging highs via a five day chart, are still below highs seen in July and early August of this year. The shadow of the U.S Fed’s interest rate policy remains a dominant theme and is likely to continue to spur a rather solid range for speculators to consider. As mentioned, the acknowledgement that Crude Oil prices have dipped recently is having an effect on the USD/MXN too.

However a speculative storm awaits the USD/MXN. Hurricane Ian is entering the Gulf of Mexico and in the next two days will make landfall which will cause bedlam perhaps, but what will also happen is that Crude Oil producers who are situated in the Gulf of Mexico will have to stop operations at a minimum. There is also a risk to energy logistics and the potential of damage to production rigging.

The USD/MXN will be affected by Hurricane Ian if it Causes Problems

While it might seem wildly farfetched to bet on weather and the results from a hurricane, the USD/MXN may actually be affected by the outcome in the short term. Speculators may have the opportunity to wager on the amount of nervous behavioral sentiment which could develop depending on the news from Hurricane Ian. If Crude Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico starts getting negative coverage, this could potentially cause traders to consider short term speculative positions.

  • The USD/MXN has certainly seen a bullish trend in the short term and betting against the trend is dangerous, risk management will be essential for those who want to wager on bearish momentum developing.
  • If short term support near the 20.28000 level is challenged and proves vulnerable, traders may want to ignite selling positions which seek the 20.25000 to 20.21000 ratios.

The suggestion that traders bet on the outcome and media coverage of Hurricane Ian is speculative at its core. Wagering on downside price action to ensue based on the potential the USD/MXN could trader lower because of nervousness developing in Crude Oil is a short term consideration. Speculators who attempt to sell the USD/MXN need to use solid risk management and have targeted goals ready to be cashed in via take profit orders, needless to say – traders must use stop losses to protect their accounts too in case the wager doesn’t work.

USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 20.37500

Current Support: 20.27400

High Target: 20.44200

Low Target: 20.15000

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Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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