A lot of people are still waiting to see what the CPI numbers are going to be next week, as it could give us an idea as to what the Federal Reserve will be looking toward.
The S&P 500 has broken above the 50-Day EMA during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of strength in the recovery rally. The fact that we are closing at the very highs of the day on Friday is also a very bullish sign, so it certainly looks as if people are starting to feel better.
The US dollar has fallen hard during the course of the week, so that makes a certain amount of sense as well, as the US dollar falling tends to give people more of a “risk on” type of attitude. The S&P 500 is probably going to see a certain amount of selling pressure given enough time, as the earnings recession that is coming is more likely than not going to be a major issue.
Waiting for the CPI Numbers
- By breaking above the 50-Day EMA, it could send this market looking towards the 200-Day EMA, but it’s also worth noting that this may be more or less a play on the US dollar overall.
- A lot of people are still waiting to see what the CPI numbers are going to be next week, as it could give us an idea as to what the Federal Reserve will be looking toward.
- Inflation is what they plan on fighting, but at this point seems to be a lot of “hopium” out there that the Fed is going to save Wall Street, and why wouldn’t there be? This has been the play for the last 14 years, and this is a problem that the Federal Reserve itself created.
On signs of exhaustion, I am more than willing to sell this market, but if we were to break above the 4200 level, we may have to chase this market higher. At that point, it would be a very bullish sign and it gets in this market looking to the 4600 level. Nonetheless, there’s very little in the way of reason to believe that we are going to take off to the upside based upon risk appetite changing suddenly. Yes, there will be the occasional bear market rally, but that’s exactly what is a bear market rally. I believe a little bit of patience may go a long way in order to find the next shorting opportunity. That being said, you have to wait for price action to confirm.