My previous EUR/USD signal last Monday produced a profitable short trade from the bearish inside bar breakdown rejecting the resistance level which I had identified at $1.0195.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $0.9993, $1.0032, or $1.0061.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 50 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $0.9930 or $0.9800.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my last analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on 12th September, I thought that despite long-term bearish trend, it was significant that the price was continuing to establish new higher support levels. I thought that the key pivotal point for the day looked likely to be the support level at $1.0032.
This was partially accurate as the price broke above that level and ended the day up, but the level did not hold – the truly pivotal point was the resistance at $1.0195.
The technical picture is more bearish now. The long-term bullish trend in the US Dollar has gathered strength again after US inflation data came in higher than expected in the middle of last week. However, it has been notable that the Euro is showing some relative strength lately, with the Dollar advancing more against the British Pound and the commodity currencies.
We are now seeing signs that the Euro might be beginning to fall more significantly, with the price trading back below the parity level, and more importantly, the former support at $0.9993 which has probably now become resistance.
If the price can get established later below $0.9930, that would be a very bearish sign and suggest that a strong breakdown would finally be underway.
I am prepared to take a short trade today if we get a bullish retracement to $1.0032 and see a firm bearish reversal rejecting that level.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the EUR or the USD.
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