- The EUR/CHF has rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise in general.
- This is a market that is a good way to measure euro strength or weakness, as the Swiss Franc is one of its biggest trading partners.
- Both of these economies have to worry about the same problems on the continent, most specifically the energy situation.
- With this being the case, the fact that the Euro has rallied against the Swiss franc it does give a little bit of hope for the Euro, but the reality is that we are still very much in a downtrend. Because of this, I think you are looking for selling opportunities at the first signs of exhaustion.
The 0.96 level has been important multiple times recently, and it should be important on the way back out. With that being the case, I’m waiting to see whether or not we can break a mother, but beyond that we also have the 50-Day EMA that could come into the picture to cause some noise. Looking at this chart, I think it is probably only a matter of time before we see sellers come in, and on and exhaustion candlestick, specifically the daily timeframe, I am more than willing to start selling again.
Looking to Fade Rallies in the Euro
While the Swiss National Bank is pretty quick to intervene in the Forex markets at times, the reality is they have to know that the situation in Europe is so bad that there’s almost nothing they can do. This is mainly about the Euro than anything to do with Switzerland, although Switzerland certainly has a lot of the same problems. As long as the Federal Reserve remains tight, there is a natural amount of downward pressure on the Euro in general.
With this, I think we continue to fade rallies in the Euro against almost any currency, not just the Swiss franc. I do like the idea of getting a little bit of value when it comes to shorting this market, so I’m going to let it run a little higher before looking for an opportunity. If we can break above the 0.98 level, then I might expect to move toward the Perry level, but as things stand right now, it would take quite a bit of effort to make that happen.
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