we may have just found “fair value”, but I think that’s probably a short-term phenomenon.
- Ethereum markets have done very little during trading on Monday, as it is probably worth noting that the US dollar took a bit of a tumble.
- Ethereum seems content to hang about the $1750 level, which does make a certain amount of sense as it is between the most recent swing high and the most recent swing low, right about dead in the center.
- In other words, we may have just found “fair value”, but I think that’s probably a short-term phenomenon.
If you ever wanted a lesson in how markets behave, this chart is a great way to look at it. Notice how the ATR, or the Average True Range continues to drop. This shows that there is not that much volatility in this market, at least not as much as there was several months ago. This flies in the face of what a lot of retail traders are telling me, that Ethereum is going to completely take off after “The Merge” happens. That’s coming in the next few weeks, so a lot of these people expect the market to suddenly take off.
Markets Waiting for the Merge
That’s not how markets work, as they try to price what’s going to happen in the future. The surge higher at the end of July is what that was all about. The question now is whether all these upgrades work out. If they were to fail somehow, or if there was some type of big glitch, Ethereum is going to take a punch in the face. On the other hand, if the upgrade works as advertised, then it’s already a “known known.” In other words, it’s already been priced into the marketplace.
I pay close attention to the 200-Day EMA, which currently sits at the $2000 level, as I think that makes for a nice ceiling in the market. The risk appetite of traders around the world is a bit stronger during the day on Monday as the US dollar has fallen, but Ethereum could not rally. In fact, bitcoin had a relatively strong session, while Ethereum lost ground. This is not to say that I think Ethereum is going to fall apart, but I don’t necessarily see it having a lot of momentum either. At this point, we probably continue to be entered around this general vicinity.
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