Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to see a lot of reasons to tighten monetary policy, and that of course has a huge influence on risk appetite.
- The BTC/USD has been somewhat positive during the trading session on Thursday, as $18,000 level continues to be very important for the longer-term trend.
- At this point, it looks as if the market is going to continue to chip away at the $18,000 level, and I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we break through there.
- All one must do is look at how lackadaisical the rallies have been over the last several weeks, telling you that Bitcoin has nowhere to be anytime soon.
Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to see a lot of reasons to tighten monetary policy, and that of course has a huge influence on risk appetite. The 50-Day EMA is sitting near the $21,000 level and is dropping. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where we are more likely than not going to continue to fade rallies, taking advantage of some negativity. I think that Bitcoin is going to chop through the support level, and eventually go much lower. This is a market that will try to get down to the $15,000 level, and then eventually down to the $12,000 level where we started the big move higher anyway.
In that area, I will not hesitate to build up a larger position, but right now I think we get a situation where you have plenty of time to get involved, and therefore, I feel no rush whatsoever to be buying Bitcoin. Furthermore, it’s going to need the Federal Reserve to come to bail it out, because the risk appetite has been a major problem in this market, as people are not willing to take major risks, they have no interest in crypto. Remember, crypto is now highly institutionalized, lease Bitcoin is. Bitcoin needs cheap and easy money to get going.
That is not going to happen anytime in the next several months, so at this point, it is only a matter of time before we fall. It would take a major pivot by the Federal Reserve for Bitcoin to be interesting, and that’s not happening between now and the end of the year. All things being equal, I do plan on building up a huge position, but it’s not until the larger macroeconomic situation changes.