Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6920.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6800.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6820 and a take-profit at 0.6750.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6910.
The AUD/USD price bounced back on Friday as the strong US rebound took a breather. The pair rose to a high of 0.6877, which was the highest point since August 31 and 2.66% above the lowest level this month. In the same period, the US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, retreated from over $110 to $108.30.
Focus to be on the US dollar
The AUD/USD pair had an important week last week after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered its decision. As was widely expected, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 0.50% as it continued its battle against inflation. In a statement, the bank’s governor warned that more rates were possible in the coming months.
Australia also published the latest GDP numbers. The data revealed that the Australian economy did modestly well, helped by soaring consumer spending. It expanded by 0.6% on a QoQ basis and by 3.6% on an annual basis. Further data revealed that Australia’s exports moderated slightly in July.
The only important Australian data this week will be the latest jobs numbers that are scheduled for Thursday. Analysts expect that the country added over 50k jobs in August after it shed 40.94k jobs in July. At the same time, they expect that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.4%. Still, these numbers will likely have minimal impact on the AUD/USD pair.
Instead, the most important data to watch will be on America’s inflation which will come out on Tuesday. Most analysts expect that inflation dropped for the second straight month in August as gasoline prices dropped. The average gas price has moved from over $5 in June to $3.75. This is notable since gasoline is a key part of inflation. Still, the Fed is expected to continue hiking interest rates in the coming months.
AUD/USD forecast
The AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. As it rose it managed to retest the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. It also moved slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the money flow index (MFI) moved slightly below the neutral point of 50.
The pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 0.6920. The alternative view is where the pair retests the important support level at 0.6800.
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