Start the week of August 15, 2022 with our Forex forecast focusing on major currency pairs here.
The Canadian dollar has stabilized against the Japanese yen over the last couple of weeks, essentially going nowhere. If the CAD/JPY currency pair can break above the highs of the last week, it’s very likely that the Canadian dollar will drive toward the ¥108 level. On the other hand, if we do pull back from here, I suspect that there is going to be a significant amount of support near the ¥102 level.
The Bank of Japan continues to buy “unlimited bonds”, which is the same thing as printing currency. If crude oil starts to recover again, this could be one of the best FX-related plays out there.
The US dollar fell a bit against the Japanese yen during trading last week, showing signs of negativity. However, there is also a significant amount of support near the ¥132.50 level, and we have recovered from there. It’s very likely that the USD/JPY currency pair will continue to see this market go higher over the longer term, but we may have a bit of sideways action to deal with between now and then. After all, we need to understand that the market has been a bit overdone for a while, so I think we are simply working off the froth right now.
The AUD/USD currency pair shot higher last week, showing signs of life again. However, this is the one standout against the US dollar that I see right now, so I don’t necessarily trust this rally. The 0.7 to a level above should offer a bit of resistance, so I would be cautious about going long of the Australian dollar here. It’s probably more likely than not going to see some negativity, maybe later in the week.
The EUR/USD currency pair tried to rally significantly but found the 1.04 level a bit too much to get beyond. Because of this, it looks like we will continue to see a “fade the rally” type of market in the euro which is not a huge surprise considering all of the economic danger that the EU currently faces. The US dollar is by far the strongest currency over the longer term, and I think the euro is going to remain a punching bag. If we see any signs of strength this coming week, I will be looking for the first signs of exhaustion to start shorting.