USD/JPY Technical Analysis: New Attempts by Bulls

After sharp selling last week, the USD/JPY currency pair was pushed towards the 131.73 support level. The bulls are trying to return the currency pair on its stronger upward path with gains that extended to the resistance level 133.90, and with the expectation of more stimulus, it settled around the 133.25 level at the time of writing the analysis.

According to the economic analysis, the USD/JPY currency pair is trading influenced by the announcement of the preliminary US consumer confidence index in Michigan for the month of August, better than expected at 55.1 versus expectations at 52.5. On the other hand, last week's initial US jobless claims outperformed the expected 263K with a lower statistic of 262K, while the PPI for July matched expectations of 7.6% (annualized).

The US Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy for the month of July fell both from expectations (year-on-year) and (monthly) at 6.1% and 0.5%, respectively, by 5.9% and 0.3%. The general CPI for this period also came in below expectations in both cases. Economic data last week indicated that every official measure of US inflation was either slowing or declining in July, while separate measures of producer prices and import costs also surprised to see declines in the recent period. Meanwhile, a New York Fed survey showed expectations of future inflation falling on all horizons last month, and a significant University of Michigan survey indicated that expectations fell on all but the longer horizons.

In Japan, bank lending for July beat the expected change (y/y) by 1.4% with a change of 1.8%. On the other hand, the seasonally adjusted current account balance for June exceeded the estimate of -703.8 billion yen with -132.4 billion yen.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

In the near term and according to the performance on the hourly chart, it appears that the USD/JPY is trading within an ascending channel formation. This indicates a significant short-term bullish momentum in the market sentiment. Therefore, the bulls will look to extend the current move of gains towards 133.88 or higher to 134.26. On the other hand, the bears will look to pounce on pullbacks around 133.05 or lower at 132.54.

In the long term and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the USD/JPY pair is trading within the formation of a sharp descending channel. This indicates a strong long-term bearish bias in market sentiment. Therefore, the bears will target long-term profits at around 131.75 or lower at the 129.30 support. On the other hand, the bulls - the bulls - will look to pounce on profits at around 135.55 or higher at the 138.07 resistance.


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Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.