USD/INR: Incremental Climb via Bullish Trend Remains Steady

The USD/INR has been able to sustain the higher values it established in the middle of last week and speculators will continue to be tested.

The Indian Rupee continues to lose ground to the USD in Forex and as of this morning a value of 79.8700 is being demonstrated.  Speculative conditions are ripe within the USD/INR currency pair as higher price action is likely causing technical traders to wonder if the 80.0000 mark is going to be challenged again. In the middle of July the USD/INR was able to trade above the 80.0000 reaching an apex of nearly 80.2200 temporarily on the 14th of the month.

Even if the USD/INR is overbought it could go higher via Speculative Conditions

The middle of last week shook the USD/INR from a seemingly polite trading range, in which reversals lower were starting to signal evidence that the long term bullish streak from the forex pair might be slowing.  The short term trend however was proven wrong and nervous sentiment emerged again within financial institutions as whispers about more hawkish U.S Federal Reserve policy was discussed.

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The publication of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes report last week indicated there is a disagreement within the U.S central bank regarding future steps to combat inflation. Troubling for traders is the fact the USD/INR is now within sight of all-time highs again, and that more fundamental news sparks will fly later this week.

Jackson Hole Talks and Preliminary GDP from U.S will affect the USD/INR this Week

The major central banks of the world this week will be getting together in Jackson Hole, Wyoming which is a symposium for financial heavyweights to discuss monetary policy. On Friday Fed Chairman Powell will speak. And before this, Thursday, the U.S will publish Preliminary GDP data. In other words traders of the USD/INR need to expect more volatility.

  • If the 17.9000 mark is toppled and higher value is sustained the USD/INR could again challenge the 18.0000 in the near term.
  • Behavioral sentiment is likely to remain nervous because of volatility which is certain to be caused because of policy speeches and economic data from the U.S later this week.

Traders of the USD/INR may be tempted to believe the forex pair has climbed too high and may attempt to sell. However, reversals lower in the short term will likely remain limited. Quick hitting trades are advised which are not overly ambitious today and tomorrow.

A vast sea of volatility will be demonstrated in the USD/INR later this week and risk management will be essential. The trend higher in the USD/INR may be hard to wager on for contrarians, but if support levels are tested in the short term looking for small moves upwards could prove worthwhile.

USD/INR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 79.9050

Current Support: 79.8300

High Target: 80.0300

Low Target: 79.7100

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Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.