The EUR/USD has fallen during the trading session on Friday, as it looks like we are hell-bent on testing the parity level again. The parity level has a lot of psychology attached to it, and if we were to break down below the parity level on a daily close, it could kick off even more algorithmic trading to the downside. The market has been in a negative move for quite some time.
The 50 Day EMA above sits near the 1.03 level and is driving lower. That should continue to offer plenty of dynamic resistance, and at this point in time, it’s likely that the market trying to restore that area will almost certainly find sellers. I don’t have any interest in trying to get bullish in the short term, I think it’s probably more likely than not going to be a scenario where interest rates in the United States will continue to rise, and therefore it’s likely that the Euro will be a punching bag as a result.
Europe and United States
Furthermore, the European Union has a lot of problems coming down the road this winter, as energy will be a major issue and of course, almost all economic indicators coming out of the European Union are very negative. This is in stark contrast to the United States which has a hot economy and alot of inflation as well. This is not to say that there will be all roses and puppy dogs in the United States, but at this point, it’s likely that the United States will fare much better than Europe. With this, I think we continue to see the greenback attract a lot of attention as well, if for no other reason than people will be more apt to put money in New York than Frankfurt.
- It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where we get overly bullish.
- I think we continue to see signs of exhaustion get sold into, and that’s probably the best trade.
- If we break below the recent lows which are just below the parity level, I will not hesitate to start shorting the Euro in that scenario as well.
- It’s not until we break the 1.06 level at the very least that I would consider buying the Euro.
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