Previous BTC/USD Signal
My previous signal on 1st August was not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level I had identified at $24,372 was first reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $23,585, $23,028, or $22,713.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $24,358 or $25,000.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous analysis last Monday that the price of BTC/USD had reached a pivotal point: the support level at $23,266. I thought that if the breakdown happened, it could be quite strong as there were no support levels below until $21,449. However, I was also happy to take a long trade from that level if there was a bullish bounce.
This was an OK call as the price broke down slowly, and this did indicate correctly that the price would fall over the remainder of the day.
The broad technical picture is unchanged: the price continues to rise gently and be held by a wide bullish price channel.
The shorter-term picture has become more bullish as we have seen the price make two clear higher lows since towards the end of last week, and today it has been rising firmly to break out bullishly above the former resistance level at $23,585 and make a new August high price.
The important question now is whether $23,585 will continue to hold as new support. If it does, we could see the price rise today to $24,358 or even the big round number at $25k.
The best approach to trading Bitcoin today will likely be to wait for a long from a bounce at or very close to $23,585. I would not want to see any hourly closes below that level before entering a new long trade.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the US Dollar.
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