- The BTC/USD has fallen a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, losing over 3%.
- At this point, it looks like we are ready to continue going lower, and therefore I think we are about to make that next move in the downtrend.
- As things stand right now, I still think that we may eventually see a reading of $12,000, but that does not mean we get there right away.
The 50 Day EMA sits all the way up at the $22,000 level and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of resistance in that area, assuming that we can even get there. I don’t think it happens anytime soon, so signs of exhaustion will more likely than not be signs to start shorting again. More likely than not, we will break down below the $19,000 level, where I suspect that a lot of people will be getting rather aggressive, opening the possibility of a move down to the $16,000 level rather quickly.
Absence of Risk Appetite Fades Rallies
Rallies are to be faded because there’s no risk appetite out there. Risk appetite is needed for something like bitcoin to start being bid higher, because it’s made to be speculated on, not actually used. It’s not like a barrel of oil, which has actual real use value. I know most crypto traders hate to hear that, but as things stand right now, crypto is nothing but speculation. This does not mean that it won’t eventually be worthwhile in the real world, but I live in a city of over 4 million people and cannot think of one place where you can use bitcoin for real. I’m sure they exist, but I just can’t think of any. In other words, as things stand right now, it’s a Ponzi scheme.
Nonetheless, that does not mean that you cannot make money from it. My first trade in the crypto markets was the short futures contract 2 days after it opened in Chicago. I made an absolute killing. We will eventually see an accumulation phase, and you will be well advised to build up a position because the same people who ran it up higher will do so again. I personally don’t care if bitcoin is ever used. I highly suspect it probably won’t be because central banks will make sure it doesn’t. However, I recognize that all speculative bubbles have the same type of behavior, so you will see another move higher eventually. Ironically, Bitcoin traders need the Federal Reserve to bail them out. Until they do loosen monetary policy, this is dead money.
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