BTC/USD Forecast: Continues to Trade in a Tight Range

  • The BTC/USD continues to go back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to hang around the $21,500 level.
  • The market is likely to continue to see a bit of hesitation, and ironically enough, I think that cryptocurrency is waiting to see what central banks are going to do.

This is the exact opposite of what crypto is supposed to be doing because when everybody gets excited about Bitcoin, it was supposed to be a way to break away from central banks. However, the institutions have entered the marketplace, and therefore it does make quite a bit of sense that we will continue to see Bitcoin behave more like a traditional asset. Bitcoin is pretty far out on the wrist spectrum, so we need to see risk appetite rally in order to make a bigger move.

Market Likely to See Resistance

Looking at the start, I think it is worth noting that the 50 Day EMA is just above and dropping. In other words, the market is likely to see resistance above anyway. Furthermore, the $24,000 level is going to continue to be important, right along with the $25,000 level. If we can break above all of that, then we will test the next consolidation area that starts at the $28,000 level. If we can break above the 200-Day EMA, it is likely that we could continue to go much higher in a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation.

The $20,000 level underneath being broken to the downside would open up the possibility of further selling, perhaps opening up a move down to the $12,000 level. The $12,000 level is where we started this bullish run to begin with, so I do think that there will be a lot of interest in buying Bitcoin in that region if we were to get down there. I would certainly be willing to jump in and start buying and building up a bigger position in that general vicinity. That being said, we are waiting to see what Jerome Powell says during the Jackson Hole symposium to give us a bit of a “heads up” as to what the Federal Reserve is going to do going forward. Quite frankly, Bitcoin needs to see monetary policy loosen up a bit to really get going to the upside.

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Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.