Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6800.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6953.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6935 and a take-profit at 0.7025.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6850.
The AUD/USD price retreated slightly ahead of the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming and the second estimate of US GDP data. It was trading at 0.6900, which was slightly below this week’s high of 0.6966.
Jackson Hole and US GDP data
The AUD/USD price has been in a bearish trend in the past two weeks because of the substantially strong US dollar. The dollar index managed to recover from this month’s low of about $104 to $109 after the mixed minutes by the Federal Reserve.
The minutes showed that the bank’s officials were still concerned about the soaring inflation being entrenched permanently in the economy. At the same time, some members worried that the bank was possibly hiking too fast.
Therefore, investors will focus on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium where Jerome Powell will be the headline speaker. His statement will be notable since it will be the first one since the US published July’s consumer inflation data.
The data showed that inflation dropped from 9.1% in June to about 8.7% in July this year as gasoline prices dropped. Prices moved below $4 for the first time in months, signaling that inflation will also drop in August.
Fed officials usually use the Jackson Hole event to reset expectations. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the AUD/USD pair will show some volatility as it goes on.
The pair will also react mildly to the second estimate of US GDP data for the second quarter. In July, data by the statistics agency showed that the country’s economy contracted by 0.8% in Q2, after slowing by 0.9% in the previous quarter. As a result, the country moved into a technical recession in the quarter. The data will not have a major impact on the pair.
AUD/USD forecast
The AUD/USD pair has been in a bearish trend in the past few days. In this period, it has moved below the standard pivot point and the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. At the same time, it has formed what looks like a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is usually a bearish sign. The pair has moved slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key psychological level at 0.6800. A move above the pivot point at 0.6955 will invalidate the bearish view.
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