- The AUD/USD currency pair has been back and forth during most of the session on Thursday as we have the Non-Farm Payroll numbers coming out for Friday.
- This suggests that we are more likely than not going to see some type of resolution finally.
- The 0.70 level above is the beginning of significant resistance, so it is most likely going to be in the area that we need to pay close attention to. If we were to break through that area, it would set quite a precedence in this market.
Break Above 0.7050
Breaking above 0.7050 level could kick off a longer-term rally in the Australian dollar, perhaps driven by the market’s desire to force the Fed to lower interest rates. The jobs number on Friday will have a major influence on where we go next, because if the jobs number comes out far too strong, then people will be worried that the Federal Reserve cannot bail out Wall Street. For the last 14 years, the Federal Reserve has served the interest of hedge funds and investment banks, but now they have to worry about inflation. Inflation running out of control is the type of thing that causes civil unrest.
It is because of this that we may be entering a new paradigm, but the end result will more likely than not be the same. In other words, I hate to say this but it’s probably back to the “bad news is good news” type of attitude that the market had for so long. If the jobs number is relatively light, it’s likely that what we have next year rally in the market because Wall Street will be convinced that they will get their sugar from Uncle Jerome. On the other hand, if the jobs number comes out far too strong, people will begin to worry that the Federal Reserve is actually serious about fighting inflation, which of course would be bad for Wall Street as markets have nothing to do with the economy.
Once you understand that it’s about monetary flow and has nothing to do with the companies involved, you begin to understand that this is a bet on Federal Reserve policy more than anything else. This is especially true with the NASDAQ 100, as it is so highly levered to the interest rate situation to begin with. As long as traders on Wall Street believe that they can get cheap or free money, get a rally.
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