- The NASDAQ 100 fell a bit Monday to test the 12,250 level, an area that previously had been massive resistance.
- A bit of “market memory” could come into the picture and cause a bit of noise.
- The market has recently shot straight in the air, but as we are getting close to the Federal Reserve meeting, it does make sense that we would see traders exercise a bit of caution.
- This is a market that I think traders are very cautious with, so getting flat makes quite a bit of sense.
The 12,250 Level
Looking at the start, it’s obvious that the 12,250 level is important, right along with the 50-day EMA sitting underneath near the 12,000 level. All things being equal, the market is more likely than not going to be paying close attention to Jerome Powell and of course GDP numbers this week. With that being the case, I think we only have a matter of time before we have to make a bigger decision. If we break down through the 50-day EMA, then it’s likely that we could go down to the 11,500 level.
On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break above the 12,660 level, then we could make a move towards a 13,000 level. However, the 13,000 level seems to be very difficult to break above, and it’s really not until we break above the 13,500 level that I might be convinced that the trend has changed. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy in general, so I think it’s probably best that you keep your position size reasonably small.
I have much more comfort in the idea of shorting this market than buying it, and I think the bullish trade will be difficult, but at this point in time it’s very likely that we would see a lot of back and forth over the next couple of days. In general, this is a market where more likely than not, it continues to go sideways more than anything else between now and the end of the Wednesday session. In other words, I will probably sit on the sidelines but I will be watching closely over the next couple of days and see what I see.
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