At the end of last week’s trading, the price of the GBP/USD pair fell below the 1.2000 psychological support, with losses to the 1.1975 support level, its lowest in two weeks. It returned quickly amid buying operations, as the technical indicators moved recently towards oversold levels, stable around the 1.2120 resistance level at the time of writing the analysis. However, the pair is still far from retesting the 100-hour moving average line, which leaves more room for an upward movement. In addition, the currency pair did not reach overbought levels after recently recovering from the oversold levels of the 14-hour RSI.
On the economic side, the GBP/USD currency pair is trading influenced by the announcement that the US ISM manufacturing PMI for June fell from expectations at 54.9 with 53. The related PMIs also came in below estimates. On the other hand, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI beat expectations of 52.4 with a reading of 52.7. It was announced that initial jobless claims for the week ending June 24th exceeded the expected number of claims by 228K with a total increase of 231K.
In the UK, May Mortgage Approvals beat the forecast of 64K at 66.16K, while M4 Money Supply increased 0.5% (MoM) and 5.1% (YoY) compared to the previous period increase of 0 % and 4.9%, respectively. It was announced that the GDP in Britain for the first quarter matched expectations (quarterly) expected at 0.8% with a reading of 0.8%. The change (year-on-year) was also in line with expectations of 8.7%.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey offered, among many others, some contextual insights that will be of great relevance to all those seeking to understand or evaluate the merits of the current market expectations of the Bank rate, which has been raised to the highest level a year later. "We can see very clearly the direct market pricing and the implied market curve ie prices in what we are going to do," the Bank of England governor said last week. We are also as you know, and we just started doing that recently, and we're publishing a market survey.”
Implicit market measures of central bank interest rate expectations are often derived from the overnight index swap market, a derivative market that investors use more to hedge or hedge against interest rate risk than by those rate speculators. Prices in the overnight index swap market since mid-June indicate that there is a high risk of the Bank of England's interest rate rising from 1.25% to 2.75% or more before the end of the year, although the Bank of England's survey of market participants suggests an expected rise. Bank interest rate to only 2%.
GBP/USD Technical Outlook today
In the near term and according to the hourly chart, it appears that the GBP/USD currency pair is trading in the formation of a sharp ascending channel. This indicates a strong short-term bullish momentum in the market sentiment. Therefore, the bears will target potential pullback profits at around 1.2061 or lower at 1.2006. On the other hand, the bulls will target short-term profits at around 1.2136 or higher at 1.2184.
In the long term and according to the performance on the daily chart, it appears that the GBP/USD currency pair is trading within the formation of a descending channel. This indicates a significant long-term bearish momentum in market sentiment. Therefore, the bears will look to extend the current declines towards 1.1938 or lower to 1.1772. On the other hand, the bulls will look to rebound at 1.2272 or higher at the 1.2478 resistance.
