The S&P 500 futures market pulled back heading into the weekend, reaching the 4100 level. The 4100 level is an area that will attract a certain amount of attention, as there has been both buying and selling in that area. Ultimately, if we can break down below the 4100 level, the market is likely to go looking to the 4000 level, perhaps even down to the 3900 level.
On the upside, the 50-day EMA sits just below the 4200 level. If we break above there, then it offers a short-term rally that could go as high as the 4300 level. If we were to clear that level, then I think it completely changes the overall trend and starts to have people rush into the market. That being said, it’s very unlikely that we would see that happen. More likely than not, we would have to have a huge “risk-on rally” that has legs and we would need to see the Federal Reserve change its attitude.
More likely than not, we will break down and go looking to the 4000 level, perhaps even the 3900 level over the longer term. After that, the 3800 level is where we bounced from previously and could be retested. Keep in mind that the market is likely to continue seeing a lot of noisy behavior, so you need to be cautious with it at this point. Ultimately, I think that selling rallies that show signs of exhaustion will continue to be that way going forward, or perhaps even buying puts. The Federal Reserve is not going to loosen its monetary policy anytime soon. Because of this, the market is likely to see a lot of volatility, but I still think there are plenty of sellers out there. Ultimately, the economic conditions do not warrant higher stock pricing, and of course, it seems like Wall Street has finally caught on to the economic reality.
Ultimately, it’s a situation where you look for signs of exhaustion that you can get involved with, and at this point, until the growth starts to pick back up, I think we’re going to see a lot of concerns when it comes to most risk assets, including stocks. I look at this as an opportunity every time we rally.
