The Monero market strengthened on Wednesday to break above the $200 level. The 200-day EMA is sitting just above, and it should offer a lot of resistance. At this point, the market is going to run into a little bit of trouble, so it would not be surprising at all to see a bit of a pullback.It could very well drop back down to the $180 level rather quickly. We are extended at this point, so we need to keep in mind that a pullback does make sense. Furthermore, it’s also worth looking at the market structure to make some decisions as well.
There is a lot of noise between here and $220, and it is set up as a perfect shorting opportunity. We do not have an exhaustion candle to jump on, so I may drill down to a shorter time frame. Monero has bucked the trend for most crypto markets, but in general, it should be noted that crypto is a complete disaster at this moment. If the US dollar starts to pick up strength, then it’s possible that we may see selling pressure based on that alone. Furthermore, if Bitcoin and other larger markets get sold into, Monero will more likely than not fall as well.
Based on Fibonacci studies, the idea is that if we exhaust momentum in this general vicinity, we could very well test the lows again. I think that is all but given if the Bitcoin market breaks down below $28,000, where we have been hanging on by a thread. Breaking down below there then will put a lot of fear into the crypto markets, and the smaller coins will get hurt.
On the other hand, if the Monero market breaks above the $225 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the $290 level as a target. This would accompany Bitcoin rallying, as well as Ethereum in my estimation. As Monero has been so strong against the dollar over the last week or so, it’s also worth noting that it seems to be behaving much like the Australian dollar, for whatever that is worth. At this point, we are at a major inflection junction. That being said, we are about to set up for a big move.
