The US dollar rallied again on Monday as we are threatening the 1.39 SGD level. Ultimately, the Singapore dollar continues to get beaten up by the US dollar as we have seen over the last couple of weeks, as signs of a serious slowdown in Asia continue to weigh upon all currencies. After all, China is essentially locked down, while the Japanese are doing everything they can to devalue their own currency. In this scenario, Singapore cannot help but see a little bit of a “knock-on effect” at this point.
All of that being said, we have not broken to a fresh, new high, which was right at the 1.39 level. While we could do so, it makes quite a bit of sense that we would hear a lot of noise in this general vicinity, perhaps chopping around to build up enough inertia to continue going higher. The bond markets are worth paying attention to because as long as the yields in America continue to spike higher, it does make sense that we would see the US dollar strengthen. Furthermore, as long as there is a lot of risk aversion out there, it is likely that we would see a lot of running away from anything not called the “US dollar.” However, it is worth noting that the Singapore dollar is considered to be a relatively safe currency.
Underneath, if we were to break down significantly, we could go looking to the 1.37 level, where we had broken out from previously. In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility but that is going to be the case with all currencies right now. On a break above the 1.39 handle, then the USD/SGD market is likely to go looking to reach the 1.40 level next. On the other hand, if we were to fall and break below the 1.37 handle, then it is likely that we could try to re-enter the previous consolidation area, perhaps even allowing the market to fall to the 1.35 handle. That being said, it is very unlikely to see the US dollar lose that much ground in this type of economic environment. With this, dips will more than likely offer plenty of buying opportunities as we go forward.
