The US dollar initially pulled back a bit on Friday but then turned around to show signs of life again near the 1.28 level. This is an area that has been supported multiple times, and it is likely that we will continue to see buyers trying to take advantage of “cheap dollars.” Keep in mind that the US dollar continues to see a lot of inflows, and I think we will continue to see that being the case. After all, interest rates in America continue to climb and the Canadian economy is starting to suffer.
The oil market has been rather strong, but quite frankly the US dollar and crude oil can rise at the same time. After all, the US dollar has a lot of pressure on it due to the demand for yield, but at the same time there is a lot of inflationary pressure out there, thereby driving crude oil higher. Furthermore, I think it is only a matter of time before we start to price in even further supply disruption because even though demand might be dropping a bit, the reality is that we are at historic lows for supply in certain grades.
The 50-day EMA is currently at the 1.2754 level, as it is starting to rally and offering a certain amount of dynamic support. Ultimately, I think that every time we pull back we will find buyers, and it looks like we are going to make another attempt at the 1.30 handle. The Canadian dollar is softening against a lot of currencies, so this is a huge surprise. Money continues to flow into the United States, and I think that will be the theme for the next several weeks at the very least.
As the Federal Reserve continues to tighten and sound hawkish, a lot of money is going to be running to the safety of US bonds. Canadian bonds are not necessarily Third World, but they do not hold the same type of “same as cash” appeal that US Treasuries do. If we can break above the 1.29 handle, then it is likely that we will go looking to the 1.30 level. If we break above the 1.30 handle, then it is likely that we will go much higher, perhaps breaking to a fresh, new high.
